Preseason · 2026-10-07
The Board
Championship, division and playoff prices for all twelve.
To win the championship
To win their division
Division winners take the top two seeds and a first-round bye, which is worth about 1.4x a team's title odds.
To make the playoffs
Method
2,500 seasons. Each one drafts all twelve rosters off average draft position with noise, draws a true scoring average and an injury calendar for every player, then plays the real NBA schedule day by day: nine lineup slots, seven waiver adds a week, one IR spot. The league's own rules decide the rest, a double round-robin inside each division plus the rival game, six playoff teams, byes for the two division winners.
Every team drafts the same way. An earlier version of this board gave one manager a strategy and let the other eleven take whoever sat on top of the board, which quietly paid him for being the only person in the room who was trying. Nobody gets that here.
Manager skill is a guess, and it is treated like one. Each manager carries a multiplier from his career points per week against the league average. That number is measured over 57 to 76 weeks, and a team's weekly score swings about 20 percent, so the margin of error on it is roughly 0.026 against a spread between managers of 0.033. The measurement is nearly as wide as the thing being measured. So every season draws a fresh edge around the career number rather than treating four seasons as settled fact, and new managers start at dead average because nothing is known about them yet.
These are projections, not a market. No vig, and no money changes hands. Six of twelve make the playoffs, so look at that line before this one.